26 June, 2007

Encroachment: Fast, Slow and Illusory

You're being chased by a mountain lion... and by a tree. Which is the greater threat?

The mountain lion:

Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces have been spotted by British troops crossing the border into southern Iraq... "It is an extremely alarming development and raises the stakes considerably. In effect, it means we are in a full on war with Iran -- but nobody has officially declared it." [said an unidentified British intelligence source] "We have hard proof that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps have crossed the border to attack us. It is very hard for us to strike back..." ...radar sightings of Iranian helicopters crossing into the Iraqi desert were confirmed... by very senior military sources
The tree:
I have been the expert reviewer for the IPCC, both in 2000 and last year. The first time I read it, I was exceptionally surprised. First of all, it had 22 authors, but none of them— none—were sea-level specialists. They were given this mission, because they promised to answer the right thing. Again, it was a computer issue. This is the typical thing: The metereological community works with computers, simple computers. [We] geologists don't do that! We go out in the field and observe, and then we can try to make a model with computerization; but it's not the first thing...

If you go around the globe, you find no [sea level] rise anywhere. But they need the rise, because if there is no rise, there is no death threat. They say there is nothing good to come from a sea-level rise, only problems, coastal problems. If you have a temperature rise, if it's a problem in one area, it's bene-ficial in another area. But sea level is the real “bad guy,” and therefore they have talked very much about it. But the real thing is, that it doesn't exist in observational data, only in computer modeling.
(H/T: Mover Mike)